Crunching the Numbers: The Housing Market's Post-Mini-Budget Journey
House prices have seen a modest annual increase of 0.2%, marking a year since the economically questionable mini-budget introduced by Liz Truss and Kwasi Kwarteng. Despite this, the housing market's resilience in the face of a 0.7% price drop between July and August is noteworthy.
Several insights into the market's potential future trends were offered. It is anticipated that the possibility of prices stabilising or even declining towards the end of the year.
"Over the next few months, the annual figures are expected to improve compared to the period following the mini-budget announcement.”
This substantially impacted house prices, leading to a surge in mortgage costs and a drop in house prices from a peak of £291,909 in September, the month of the announcement, to a low of £282,115 in March.
| Country and government office region | Price | Monthly change | Annual change |
| England | £310,000 | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| London | £536,000 | -0.1% | -1.4% |
Source: GOV.UK
Consequently, this year's annual growth figure for September may appear somewhat unsteady. However, looking forward, annual price increases will reference that period of lower prices, making them appear increasingly robust.
A more definitive perspective will arise from the monthly data. Since March, house prices have continued to rise each month, though the rate of increase slowed between July and August.
Considering that Bank of England data reflects a decline in approved mortgages, RICS reports a decrease in buyer demand, and HMRC records a decrease in transactions, there is a possibility that this slowdown may persist, leading to a plateau or even a decrease in prices once more.
